How much revenue is at risk right now?

Why at-risk revenue is the number that P&L reports hide from you

Your Profit and Loss report says you earned $92,000 last month. Feels solid. But dig deeper: $14,500 of that is from a client who hasn't paid an invoice in 47 days. $9,200 is from a client whose payment has been “processing” for two weeks. And $22,000 comes from a single client who represents 24% of your monthly revenue.

None of that shows up as a problem on your P&L. Revenue is revenue. But in reality, you have $45,700 in various stages of risk. Some of it might never arrive. Some might arrive months late. And if your biggest client leaves, a quarter of your revenue vanishes overnight.

At-risk revenue is the gap between what your books say you earned and what you can actually count on. Most business owners never quantify this number, and that's how they get blindsided.

The three types of revenue risk every business should track

Revenue risk comes from three sources. You need to check all three for a complete picture:

• Aging receivables. Invoices that are 30+ days overdue are at increasing risk of non-collection. The older they get, the lower the probability of payment. Anything over 60 days should be considered at serious risk.
• Chronic late payers. Even if a client eventually pays, a pattern of paying 30-45 days late creates unpredictable cash flow. Revenue from these clients is technically earned but the timing is unreliable.
• Customer concentration. If more than 25-30% of your revenue comes from a single client, that revenue is at risk even if the client pays on time. One departure, one budget cut, or one disagreement and a quarter of your business disappears.

How to calculate at-risk revenue in QuickBooks Online (6 steps)

QuickBooks does not have an “at-risk revenue” report. You need to combine data from multiple reports and apply your own risk assessment.

1. 1
   Pull your A/R Aging Summary

   Go to Reports→ search “A/R Aging Summary.” Note the totals in the 31-60, 61-90, and 91+ day columns. This is your aging risk exposure.

2. 2
   Apply collection probability discounts

   A common approach: 31-60 day invoices have a ~10% risk of non-collection. 61-90 days: ~20% risk. 91+ days: ~35%+ risk. Multiply each bucket by its risk percentage to estimate your likely write-off exposure.

3. 3
   Check customer concentration

   Go to Reports→ search “Sales by Customer Summary.” Set it to the last 3 months. Sort by amount descending. Calculate what percentage of total revenue your top 1-3 clients represent.

4. 4
   Flag concentration risk

   Any client over 25% of total revenue is a concentration risk. The dollar amount of revenue from that client (above the 25% threshold) is your concentration exposure.

5. 5
   Identify chronic late payers

   Cross-reference the A/R Aging Detail report with the Sales by Customer Summary. Clients who appear frequently in the 30+ day columns and also represent significant revenue are your highest-risk accounts.

6. 6
   Add it up

   Your total at-risk revenue = discounted aging risk + concentration exposure + chronic late-payer exposure. This gives you a dollar amount representing revenue you can't fully count on.

How to calculate at-risk revenue in Xero (5 steps)

Same concept, different menus. You need the aging report and a way to assess customer concentration.

1. 1
   Pull the Aged Receivables Summary

   Go to Accounting → Reports → Aged Receivables Summary. Note the totals in the 31-60, 61-90, and 90+ day columns.

2. 2
   Apply risk discounts to each bucket

   Use the same probability framework: 10% risk for 31-60 days, 20% for 61-90 days, 35%+ for 90+ days. Multiply each bucket by its risk percentage.

3. 3
   Check customer concentration

   Xero does not have a “Sales by Customer” summary report. Go to Business → Invoices, export the last 3 months of paid invoices, and use a spreadsheet to calculate each customer's share of total revenue.

4. 4
   Identify your highest-risk accounts

   Look for clients who appear in both the 30+ day aging columns and the top revenue list. A client who is both a large revenue source and a slow payer is your biggest risk.

5. 5
   Calculate total exposure

   Sum your aging risk, concentration risk, and chronic late-payer exposure. Express this as both a dollar amount and a percentage of monthly revenue. This is your at-risk revenue number.

What it takes to track revenue risk every month

This is one of the harder metrics to maintain manually because it combines multiple data sources and requires judgment:

• It crosses multiple reports. You need aging data, sales concentration data, and payment history. No single report gives you the full picture. That makes it easy to skip.
• Risk assessment is partly subjective.The probability discounts are guidelines, not formulas. A $15,000 invoice from a client you trust might be less risky at 60 days than a $5,000 invoice from a client who's been unreachable.
• The payoff is real. Businesses that quantify their revenue risk make better decisions about collections, client relationships, and cash reserves. It takes effort, but it prevents surprises.

Or see your at-risk revenue automatically, every month

Bottomline connects to your QuickBooks or Xero account and calculates your total revenue exposure every month. It combines aging risk, concentration risk, and payment patterns into a single number:

Bottomline also cross-references your accounting data with your CRM (if connected). If a large client has gone quiet in your CRM, has overdue invoices in your accounting software, and represents 25%+ of your revenue, your report surfaces that as a critical risk. That's context you can't get from any single system.