What does my weighted pipeline look like?

Why raw pipeline value lies to you

You have $500K in open pipeline. Feels promising. But a $200K deal in “Discovery” has maybe a 10% chance of closing. That's $20K in weighted value, not $200K. Meanwhile, a $40K deal in “Contract Sent” at 80% probability is worth $32K. The smaller deal is actually more valuable to your forecast.

Weighted pipeline forces you to be honest about what's real. It strips out the wishful thinking from early-stage deals and surfaces the deals that are most likely to become revenue. Without it, your forecast is just addition. With it, your forecast is probability-adjusted math.

The components of a weighted pipeline calculation

• Deal amount. The expected value of each open opportunity. This needs to be accurate and up to date in your CRM.
• Stage probability. Each deal stage should have a probability assigned: Discovery might be 10%, Proposal Sent might be 50%, Contract Sent might be 80%. These should reflect your actual conversion rates, not default percentages.
• Weighted value. Deal amount multiplied by stage probability. Sum these across all open deals to get your total weighted pipeline.

How to see weighted pipeline in HubSpot

1. 1
   Configure stage probabilities: Settings → Objects → Deals

   Go to Settings (gear icon) → Objects → Deals → Pipelines. Click on your pipeline. For each stage, enter the “Deal probability” percentage. These should come from your historical data, not guesses.

2. 2
   View weighted forecast: Sales → Forecast

   Navigate to Sales → Forecast. Click the Deal stagetab. If your Forecast deal amount settings are set to “Weighted amount,” the forecast shows pipeline value multiplied by deal stage probability. If it shows “Total amount,” change this in forecast settings.

3. 3
   Use Sales Analytics: Reports → Analytics Tools → Sales Analytics

   Navigate to Reports → Analytics Tools → Sales Analytics. Under Forecasts & Pipelines, select Weighted pipeline forecast. This report shows the weighted value for each deal in your selected date range.

4. 4
   Compare weighted vs. total pipeline

   In the Forecast view, toggle between weighted and total to see the gap. If your total pipeline is $400K but weighted is $120K, your pipeline is early-stage heavy. You may need to focus on advancing existing deals, not adding new ones.

How to see weighted pipeline in Salesforce

1. 1
   Check stage probabilities in Setup

   Go to Setup → Customize → Opportunity → Fields. Click the “Stage” field. Each stage should have a probability percentage assigned. Salesforce ships with default values that are often inaccurate. Update them based on your actual win rates per stage.

2. 2
   Create a Pipeline by Stage report

   Go to Reports → New Report → Opportunities. Group by “Stage.” Add the “Amount” and “Expected Revenue” columns. Salesforce calculates Expected Revenue as Amount times Probability automatically. Filter for open opportunities closing next month.

3. 3
   Review in Pipeline Inspection

   Navigate to Opportunities → Pipeline Inspection. The summary metrics at the top include pipeline totals. Each opportunity row shows the amount and probability. Use this view to quickly identify which deals contribute most to your weighted forecast.

Validate weighted pipeline against actual collections

Your weighted pipeline says you should expect $120K next month. But how accurate has that prediction been? Check it:

• Compare last month's weighted forecast to actual revenue. Pull your weighted pipeline from 30 days ago (if you saved it). Compare to what you actually collected in QuickBooks or Xero. If weighted said $100K and you collected $72K, your probabilities are too optimistic.
• Track accuracy over 3-6 months. One month can be noisy. But if your weighted pipeline consistently overstates actual revenue by 20-30%, your stage probabilities need recalibrating.

Time investment for weighted pipeline tracking

The initial setup (calibrating stage probabilities from historical data) takes 30-60 minutes. After that, the monthly review takes 10-15 minutes in your CRM plus 10 minutes comparing to accounting data. The catch: you need to recalibrate probabilities every quarter as your sales process evolves.

Or get your weighted pipeline calculated and validated automatically

Bottomline connects to your CRM and accounting software, applies deal-stage probabilities, and compares the forecast to what you actually collected. Every month, you see:

Bottomline also tracks forecast accuracy month over month. If your weighted pipeline consistently overshoots or undershoots, it recalibrates the probabilities so your forecast gets more accurate over time.